Title : Planning, Systems, And Epiphenomena
link : Planning, Systems, And Epiphenomena
Planning, Systems, And Epiphenomena
There’s a pervasive myth abroad that various human activities can be planned out a priori, and that the activity can somehow be compelled to follow the plan without deviation. Many persons in the engineering fields are aware of this myth by virtue of having had it imposed upon them from above, typically in response to a nightmare such as the ISO-9000 system.
It’s a sham and a delusion. The reason for its illusory character is simple. Let it be known henceforward as The Curmudgeon’s Pessimistic Axiom:
Before he actually does it.
There are a few exceptions, but they all relate to the simplest of simplicities, such as arising from slumber and going to the toilet. Nearly fifty years in software engineering has convinced me of this. Would anyone care to argue the point?
But I’m not here to talk about engineering. Not really.
This morning’s stimulus was provided by Mark “Mad Dog” Sherman:
Is Income Inequality Fair?The point of income inequality is to give those learning to be productive an incentive and a goal. The progressive left wants to destroy these incentives because in the end some, but not all, end wealthy. At least this is the argument used. I doubt this is the underlying reason at all. I am more inclined to believe progressives want to control others and want a reason to confiscate wealth, and income for their own uses.
Mark’s contention about the Left is, of course, absolutely correct. What piqued me was the suggestion that income inequality, which appears to be a feature of every economic scheme, has a “point:” i.e., a preconceived purpose that partially animated the “design” of the economic system.. Granted that, as Mark states, in a largely free economy such as ours, income inequality provides a spur to learning and the acquisition of valued skills. However, even in a system planned out as rigidly as the most absolute totalitarianism would permit, income inequality would arise. It always has. There’s no reason to imagine that that will change.
Whether or not the planners plan for it, there will be income inequality. But why?
The key word is epiphenomenon.
An epiphenomenon of a system is a characteristic that arises unplanned from that system. It is a consequence of lower-level characteristics of the system…sometimes, of fundamental properties built into the laws of nature. There are sometimes means by which an epiphenomenon of a human-designed system can be altered, but in the usual case, it involves altering designed-in fundamentals of the system. That will always have other consequences, not all of them desirable or benign.
Every system of any kind will possess epiphenomena. This flows from the Pessimistic Axiom, but equally from another important law of nature:
Alternately:
All causal reasoning must take this aspect of temporal reality into account.
The point of this tirade is not to discourage people and corporations against planning their activities. Planning is yet another inevitability. However, the point of planning should not be to create a rigid blueprint for the action that follows. Rather, a plan should be viewed as a guide to optimal results under optimal circumstances…which we already know will not exist. The most important function of a plan is to stimulate learning and adjustment: the constructive acceptance of our fallibility and the recognition of necessary changes as we encounter them.
Quite a long time ago, I had an intricate exchange with the C.S.O. about metaphysical fundamentals. The details, though fascinating, aren’t really relevant here. What was most memorable was when she summed up my argument in a single brief sentence:
And that is exactly correct, albeit with a small edit: replace the conjunction or with and.
Yes, God did it. But shit does happen. Quite a lot of it, actually. People and things change in unpredictable and therefore unpredicted ways. We must cope. Sometimes we fail to do so adequately. One way or another, the consequences will include epiphenomena we did not plan for and might have hoped to avoid.
Hearken to Theodore Sturgeon, from his magnificent novelette “Slow Sculpture:”
Only the companion of a bonsai (there are owners of bonsai, but they are a lesser breed) fully understands the relationship. There is an exclusive and individual treeness to the tree because it is a living thing, and living things change, and there are definite ways in which the tree desires to change. A man sees the tree and in his mind makes certain extensions and extrapolations of what he sees, and sets about making them happen. The tree in turn will do only what a tree can do, will resist to the death any attempt to do what it cannot do, or to do it in less time than it needs.. the shaping of a bonsai is therefore always a compromise and always a cooperation. A man cannot create bonsai, nor can a tree; it takes both, and they must understand each other. It takes a long time to do that. One memorizes one’s bonsai, every twig, the angle of every crevice and needle, and, lying awake at night or in a pause a thousand miles away, one recalls this or that line or mass, one makes one’s plans. With wire and water and light, with tilting and the planting of water-robbing weeds or heavy root-shading ground cover, one explains to the tree what one wants, and if the explanation is well-enough made, and there is great enough understanding, the tree will respond and obey—almost. Always there will be its own self-respecting, highly individual variation: Very well, I shall do what you want, but I will do it my own way. And for these variations, the tree is always willing to present a clear and logical explanation, and more often than not (almost smiling) it will make clear to the man that he could have avoided it if his understanding had been better.
It is the slowest sculpture in the world, and there is, at times, doubt as to which is being sculpted, man or tree.
Systems, especially those that include living actors, are like that: difficult to plan and filled with epiphenomena, some of which will always run counter to the preferences of the planners. For we don’t know what we’re going to do until we’ve actually done it.
Time to go furniture shopping. Enjoy your Saturday.
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